August 15th, 2024
Mark Feinsand
@feinsandWith the Trade Deadline in the rearview mirror, the pennant races will take center stage for the next seven weeks.
And while it’s never too early to start looking at the upcoming Hot Stove season, this seemed like a good time to review how last year’s offseason has impacted teams that made waves on the free-agent market.
According to Spotrac, 170 players signed contracts worth more than $2.9 billion over a combined 225 years, a group headlined by Shohei Ohtani's 10-year, $700 million deal with the Dodgers that included a whopping $680 million in deferred money.
Even without throwing a single pitch, Ohtani has certainly lived up to expectations, posting an MVP-caliber season in his first year with the Dodgers. But has he been the best free-agent buy of the class?
With the benefit of hindsight, we asked a number of front-office executives which players have been the best and worst signings using whatever criteria – performance, value, length of deal, etc. – they found most important.
The player cited most often as the best free-agent addition of the offseason was Seth Lugo, who inked a three-year, $45 million deal with the Royals that includes a $15 million player option for 2027. The right-hander moved back to the rotation in 2023 after five years as a reliever, parlaying a solid season in San Diego (8-7, 3.57 ERA in 26 starts) into his deal with Kansas City.
All he’s done in his first year with the Royals is go 13-7 with a 3.04 ERA, leading the American League in innings pitched (159 2/3) through his first 25 starts.
“The Royals went out on a limb by giving Lugo that deal off of one good season as a starter,” a National League executive said. “It has paid off big-time. He’s been an ace at No. 3- or 4-starter money.”
“He’s exceeded expectations,” an AL executive said.
Perhaps the best value signing has been Jurickson Profar, who is a borderline NL MVP candidate after signing a one-year, $1 million deal with the Padres in February.
“San Diego has generated three to four wins of value from a $1 million investment,” said one of three NL executives to list Profar among the best offseason additions.
Profar, who made the first All-Star team of his career this season, is slashing .295/.394/.483 with 19 home runs and 72 RBIs in a league-high 119 games.
“Last year in Colorado, he made $7 million and ended up being released due to performance,” another NL executive said. “This year he was an All-Star and a great presence for the Padres for $1 million.”
Jack Flaherty, who signed a one-year, $14 million deal with Detroit, received a pair of votes as the best deal of the offseason. The right-hander went 7-5 with a 2.95 ERA in 18 starts for the otherwise underperforming Tigers, who cashed him in for a pair of prospects at the Trade Deadline in a deal with the Dodgers.
“Flaherty did exactly what Detroit wanted,” an NL executive said.
Joc Pederson's one-year, $12.5 million pact with Arizona was mentioned by multiple executives, as the 32-year-old has provided tremendous production – 19 home runs, 52 RBIs and a .934 OPS through his first 99 games – to the D-backs’ lineup.
“Pederson is hitting like an All-Star but is just being paid like a regular guy,” said an NL executive.
Other players receiving votes included Erick Fedde (two years, $15 million with the White Sox; later traded to the Cardinals), Reynaldo López (three years, $30 million with the Braves), Shota Imanaga (four years, $53 million with the Cubs), Michael Wacha (two years, $32 million with the Royals), Ohtani and Teoscar Hernández (one year, $23.5 million with the Dodgers).
“The Dodgers killed it,” an NL exec said, referring to the Ohtani and Hernández deals.
A quartet of free agents represented by Scott Boras who didn’t sign contracts until late February to late March were mentioned by multiple executives, garnering votes in both the best and worst categories.
“Is everybody who signed late a category?” quipped one NL executive.
Blake Snell (two years, $62 million) and Matt Chapman (three years, $54 million) of the Giants, each of whom can opt out and test free agency again after this season, were tabbed by two executives apiece as strong offseason signings.
Chapman leads the NL with 119 games played, having hit 19 home runs with 60 RBIs while showcasing his reliable glove at third base.
“San Francisco capitalized on a weaker than expected market for Chapman,” an NL executive said.
“By waiting, they got him on a shorter deal,” another NL exec said. “And his floor is so much higher than most players, given his defense.”
Through the first three months of the season, Snell seemed destined to wind up on the list of regretful contracts, as he went 0-3 with a 9.51 ERA in six starts while spending more than two months on the injured list during two separate stints. But the reigning NL Cy Young winner has been virtually unhittable since the beginning of July, going 2-0 with a 0.99 ERA – and a no-hitter – in seven starts, allowing only 14 hits in 45 1/3 innings.
“Snell has been phenomenal,” said an NL executive of his six-week run. “While it’s a hefty cost, he’s worth it. And the player option with no buyout can be good for either party.”
The other two members of the “Boras Four” – Jordan Montgomery and Cody Bellinger – were mentioned most often by executives as deals that have not worked out.
Montgomery didn’t sign his one-year, $25 million contract – a deal that includes a $20 million option for 2025 that has already vested – until March 26, leaving himself with little time to prepare for the regular season.
Since making his season debut on April 19, the left-hander has a 6.37 ERA in 17 starts, having posted only five quality starts during that time.
“Jordan Montgomery, in my eyes, may have been one of the worst,” one NL executive said. “He signed late, his quality has been poor, and he’s not pitching a ton of innings as a result. His ERA may be the highest of his career.”
“There was always a disconnect between Montgomery’s actual and perceived value,” another NL exec said.
Bellinger was the first of the group to sign, agreeing to a three-year, $80 million deal with the Cubs that includes opt-out clauses after both 2024 and '25. In 91 games, he has 12 home runs, 45 RBIs and a .762 OPS.
“Cody Bellinger is one for me that’s also just kind of there,” an NL executive said. “He has a positive WAR but not enough to make his contract worth it at this point.”
Other players receiving votes for the most problematic free-agent signings included Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325 million with the Dodgers), Jung Hoo Lee (six years, $113 million with the Giants), Eduardo Rodriguez (four years, $80 million with the D-backs), Jeimer Candelario (three years, $45 million with the Reds), Lucas Giolito (two years, $38.5 million with the Red Sox), Marcus Stroman (two years, $37 million with the Yankees) and Mitch Garver (two years, $24 million with the Mariners).
